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Toward energy finance market transition: Does China’s oil futures shake up global spots market?

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 409-424 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0207-3

摘要： China is breaking through the petrodollar system, establishing RMB-dominating crude oil futures market. The country is achieving a milestone in its transition to energy finance market internationalization. This study explores the price leadership of China’s crude oil futures and identifies its price co-movement to uncover whether it truly shakes up the global oil spots market. First, we find that for oil spots under different gravities, China’s oil futures is only a net price information receiver from light-, medium-, and heavy-gravity oil spots, but it has a relatively stronger price co-movement with these three spots. Second, for oil spots under different sulfur contents, China’s oil futures still has weak price leadership in sweet, neutral, and sour oil spots, but it has strong co-movement with them. Third, for oil spots under different geographical origins, China’s oil futures shows price leadership in East Asian and Australian oil spots at the medium- and long-run time scales and strong price co-movement with East Asian, Middle Eastern, Latin American and Australian oil spots. China’s oil futures may not have good price leadership in global spots market, but it features favorable price co-movement.

关键词： China’s oil futures price information spillover price co-movement BK spillover index BDECO model

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Can the Shanghai LNG Price Index indicate Chinese market?An econometric investigation using price discovery theory

Yeli ZENG, Cong DONG, Mikael HÖÖK, Jinhua SUN, Danyang SHI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第4期页码 726-739 doi: 10.1007/s11708-020-0701-4

摘要： China became the world’s second largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer in 2018 but has faced extremely high import costs due to a lack of bargaining power. Assessments of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, first released in 2015, are vital for improving the understanding of these cost dynamics. This paper, using the LNG price index data from the Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange (SHPGX) coupled with domestic and international LNG prices from July 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018, estimates several econometric models to evaluate the long-term and short-term equilibriums of the Shanghai LNG Price Index, the responses to market information shocks and the leading or lagging relationships with LNG and alternative energy prices from other agencies. The results show that the LNG price index of the SHPGX has already exhibited a long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment mechanisms to reflect the average price level and market movements, but the market information transparency and price discovery efficiency of the index are still inadequate. China’s LNG market is still relatively independent of other natural gas markets, and marketization reforms are under way in China. The influence of the SHPGX LNG price index on the trading decisions of market participants is expected to improve with further development of China’s LNG reforms, the formation of a natural gas entry-exit system, and the increasing liquidity of the hub.

关键词： liquefied natural gas price index Shanghai Petroleum and Gas Exchange price discovery market reforms

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Exploring price effects on the residential water conservation technology diffusion process: a case study

Junying CHU, Hao WANG, Can WANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2013年第7卷第5期页码 688-698 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0559-3

摘要： Reforms of the water pricing management system and the establishment of a flexible water pricing system are significant for cities in northern China to tackle their critical water issues. The WATAP (Water conservation Technology Adoption Processes) model is developed in order to capture the water conservation technology adoption process under different price scenarios with disaggregate water demands down to the end use level. This model is explicitly characterized by the technological selection process under maximum marginal benefit assumption by different categories of households. In particular, when households need to purchase water devices in the provision market with the consideration of complex factors such as the life span, investment and operating costs of the device, as well as the regulated water price by the government. Applied to Tianjin city, four scenarios of water price evolutions for a long-term perspective (from year 2011 to 2030) are considered, including BAU (Business As Usual), SP1 (Scenario of Price increase with constant annual rate), SP2 (Scenario of Price increase every four years) and SP3 (Scenario of Price increase with affordable constraint), considering many factors such as historic trends, affordability and incentives for conservation. Results show that on aggregate 2.3%, 11.0% and 18.2% of fresh water can be saved in the residential sector in scenario SP1, SP2 and SP3, respectively, compared with the BAU scenario in the year 2030. The water price signals can change the market shares of different water appliances, as well as the water end use structure of households, and ultimately improve water use efficiency. The WATAP model may potentially be a helpful tool to provide insights for policy makers on water conservation technology policy analysis and assessment.

关键词： technology selection model optimization water price scenario analysis consumer behavior

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Does oil price affect the value of firms? Evidence from Tunisian listed firms

Kaouther ZAABOUTI,Ezzeddine BEN MOHAMED,Abdelfettah BOURI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第1期页码 1-13 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0396-8

摘要： A new debate on the potential impact of oil price changes on the value of firms was initiated in this paper. Using a stochastic frontier approach, an attempt was made to derive the optimal value * of firms and calculate the value observed. Then the shortfall ( *– ) which represents the inefficiency term was explained. Starting from 19 industrial Tunisian firms listed on the Tunis Stock Exchange between 2007 and 2011, the fact that variation of oil prices can largely explain distortions in the value of firms was empirically demonstrated.

关键词： industrial Tunisian firms oil price value of firm stochastic frontier approach

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Macroeconomic impacts of oil price volatility: mitigation and resilience

Zoheir EBRAHIM, Oliver R. INDERWILDI, David A. KING

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年第8卷第1期页码 9-24 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0303-0

摘要： Dependency on oil-derived fuels in various sectors, most notably in mobility, has left the global economy vulnerable to several macroeconomic economic side effects. Numerous studies have addressed the effect of price volatility on specific economic parameters. However, the current literature lacks a comprehensive review of the interactions between global macroeconomic performance and oil price volatility (OPV). Price volatility is intrinsic in commodity markets, but has been advancing at a faster rate in the crude oil market in comparison to other commodities over the past decade, reflecting the status of oil as the most globalised commodity. In this paper, the analytical literature review and analysis of the behavioral responses of macroeconomic agents to OPV shows that such volatility has several damaging and destabilizing macroeconomic impacts that will present a fundamental barrier to future sustainable economic growth if left unchecked. To ensure macroeconomic isolation from OPV, a combination of supply and demand-side policies have been recommended that can help to mitigate and build resilience to the economic uncertainty advanced by OPV.

关键词： conventional oil price volatility macroeconomy economic stability energy security

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Direct energy rebound effect for road transportation in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 597-611 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0276-y

摘要： The enhancement of energy efficiency stands as the principal avenue for attaining energy conservation and emissions reduction objectives within the realm of road transportation. Nevertheless, it is imperative to acknowledge that these objectives may, in part or in entirety, be offset by the phenomenon known as the energy rebound effect (ERE). To quantify the long-term EREs and short-term EREs specific to China’s road transportation, this study employed panel cointegration and panel error correction models, accounting for asymmetric price effects. The findings reveal the following: The long-term EREs observed in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation range from 13% to 25% and 14% to 48%, respectively; in contrast, the short-term EREs in road passenger transportation and road freight transportation span from 36% to 41% and 3.9% to 32%, respectively. It is noteworthy that the EREs associated with road passenger transportation and road freight transportation represent a partial rebound effect, falling short of reaching the magnitude of a counterproductive backfire effect. This leads to the inference that the upsurge in energy consumption within the road transportation sector cannot be solely attributed to advancements in energy efficiency. Instead, various factors, including income levels, the scale of commodity trade, and industrial structure, exert more substantial facilitating influences. Furthermore, the escalation of fuel prices fails to dampen the demand for energy services, whether in the domain of road passenger transportation or road freight transportation. In light of these conclusions, recommendations are proffered for the formulation of energy efficiency policies pertinent to road transportation.

关键词： road transportation direct energy rebound effect asymmetric price effects panel data model

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Day-ahead electricity price forecasting using back propagation neural networks and weighted least square

S. Surender REDDY,Chan-Mook JUNG,Ko Jun SEOG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第1期页码 105-113 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0393-y

摘要： This paper proposes the day-ahead electricity price forecasting using the artificial neural networks (ANN) and weighted least square (WLS) technique in the restructured electricity markets. Price forecasting is very important for online trading, e-commerce and power system operation. Forecasting the hourly locational marginal prices (LMP) in the electricity markets is a very important basis for the decision making in order to maximize the profits/benefits. The novel approach proposed in this paper for forecasting the electricity prices uses WLS technique and compares the results with the results obtained by using ANNs. To perform this price forecasting, the market knowledge is utilized to optimize the selection of input data for the electricity price forecasting tool. In this paper, price forecasting for Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection is demonstrated using the ANNs and the proposed WLS technique. The data used for this price forecasting is obtained from the PJM website. The forecasting results obtained by both methods are compared, which shows the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting approach. From the simulation results, it can be observed that the accuracy of prediction has increased in both seasons using the proposed WLS technique. Another important advantage of the proposed WLS technique is that it is not an iterative method.

关键词： day-ahead electricity markets price forecasting load forecasting artificial neural networks load serving entities

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土壤水盐定向迁移及排盐新模式研究

周和平,彭立新,徐小波

《中国工程科学》 2007年第9卷第11期页码 120-126

摘要：

综述了我国盐碱地改良技术现状；研究了干旱地区节水灌溉条件下农田不同地面条件土壤水盐定向迁移特征，提出了“盐分上移地表排”的排盐模式，对我国干旱农业灌区盐碱地改良治理新方法的研究探索具有现实意义。

关键词：土壤水盐定向迁移排盐新模式旱区

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An approach to locational marginal price based zonal congestion management in deregulated electricity

Md SARWAR,Anwar Shahzad SIDDIQUI

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第2期页码 240-248 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0404-z

摘要： Congestion of transmission line is a vital issue and its management pose a technical challenge in power system deregulation. Congestion occurs in deregulated electricity market when transmission capacity is not sufficient to simultaneously accommodate all constraints of power transmission through a line. Therefore, to manage congestion, a locational marginal price (LMP) based zonal congestion management approach in a deregulated electricity market has been proposed in this paper. As LMP is an economic indicator and its difference between two buses across a transmission line provides the measure of the degree of congestion, therefore, it is efficiently and reliably used in deregulated electricity market for congestion management. This paper utilizes the difference of LMP across a transmission line to categorize various congestion zones in the system. After the identification of congestion zones, distributed generation is optimally placed in most congestion sensitive zones using LMP difference in order to manage congestion. The performance of the proposed methodology has been tested on the IEEE 14-bus system and IEEE 57-bus system.

关键词： locational marginal price (LMP) distributed generation pool market deregulated electricity market congestion management

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Experimental study on average movement characteristics of bed-load particles

Limo TANG, Xingkui WANG,

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第4期页码 435-439 doi: 10.1007/s11709-009-0050-1

摘要： The three-dimensional movements of bed-load particles in an open channel with different grain diameters and different specific gravities under the conditions of different hydraulic gradient are measured by means of particle tracking velocimetry (PTV) technique. The average movement characteristics of the particles are analyzed by statistics. The results show that the longitudinal average velocities of the particles neither agree with the law suggested by Einstein nor obey the law assumed by Bagnold. Einstein’s law is that the particle velocity is equal to 11.6 times of shear velocity, and the Bagnold’s law assumes the velocity equal to the difference between flow velocity at corresponding water depth and settling velocity of particle. Two formulas for determining the velocity of particle in the forms of expression given by Einstein and Bagnold are obtained according to the statistical results of experimental data, respectively.

关键词： different longitudinal three-dimensional particle Bagnold

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峰谷电价体制下东北输油管网日输油优化研究

崔慧,吴长春,吴江林,孙青峰

《中国工程科学》 2004年第6卷第8期页码 69-73

摘要：

东北原油长输管网是中国规模最大的地区性原油运输系统，就该管网基于峰谷电价体制下的运行现状，建立了线性规划数学模型，提出了日输油计划优化问题，并以铁秦线为例进行分析；初步揭示了峰谷电价体制下日输油计划方式的一些基本规律，表明在该体制下东北管网具有一定的节能降耗潜力。但该方式在一定程度上受到管道本身运行特性的约束，与热油管道相比它更适合于等温管道。

关键词：东北管网峰谷电价日输油优化

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Multi-scale investigation of active failure for various modes of wall movement

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2021年第15卷第4期页码 961-979 doi: 10.1007/s11709-021-0738-4

摘要： Retained backfill response to wall movement depends on factors that range from boundary conditions to the geometrical characteristic of individual particles. Hence, mechanical understanding of the problem warrants multi-scale analyses that investigate reciprocal relationships between macro and micro effects. Accordingly, this study attempts a multi-scale examination of failure evolution in cohesionless backfills. Therefore, the transition of retained backfills from at-rest condition to the active state is modeled using the discrete element method (DEM). DEM allows conducting virtual experiments, with which the variation of particle and boundary properties is straightforward. Hence, various modes of wall movement (translation and rotation) toward the active state are modeled using two different backfills with distinct particle shapes (spherical and nonspherical) under varying surcharge. For each model, cumulative rotations of single particles are tracked, and the results are used to analyze the evolution of shear bands and their geometric characteristics. Moreover, dependencies of lateral pressure coefficients and coordination numbers, as respective macro and micro behavior indicators, on particle shape, boundary conditions, and surcharge levels are investigated. Additionally, contact force networks are visually determined, and their influences on pressure distribution and deformation mechanisms are discussed with reference to the associated modes of wall movement and particle shapes.

关键词： discrete-element modelling granular materials retaining walls particle shape arching

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基于物价变化的舰船修理成本建模分析研究

张怀强,蒋铁军,王孟

《中国工程科学》 2015年第17卷第5期页码 71-75

摘要：

通过物价变化对舰船修理成本的影响分析，确定了舰船装备修理成本与物价变化之间的内在关联关系。运用计量经济学模型，以工业生产者出厂价格指数与不同型号舰船大修费的时间序列数据为基础，研究物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响规律，并通过狄克-富勒检验（ADF）方法检验样本数据的稳定均衡关系。研究表明舰船装备修理成本与物价指数之间的内在关联性是长期稳定的均衡，但物价变化对舰船装备修理成本的影响存在着滞后性。

关键词：舰船装备大修费；物价指数；协整检验

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Optimal portfolio design of energy storage devices with financial and physical right market

《能源前沿（英文）》 2022年第16卷第1期页码 95-104 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0788-2

摘要： With the continuous development of the spot market, in the multi-stage power market environment with the day-ahead market and right market, the study associated with the portfolio of energy storage devices requires that attention should be paid to transmission congestion and power congestion. To maximize the profit of energy storage and avoid the imbalance of power supply and consumption and the risk of node price fluctuation caused by transmission congestion, this paper presents a portfolio strategy of energy storage devices with financial/physical contracts. First, the concepts of financial/physical transmission rights and financial/physical storage rights are proposed. Then, the portfolio models of financial contract and physical contract are established with the conditional value-at-risk to measure the risks. Finally, the portfolio models are verified through the test data of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electric power spot market, and the comparison between the risk aversion of portfolios based on financial/physical contract with the portfolio of the market without rights. The simulation results show that the portfolio models proposed in this paper can effectively avoid the risk of market price fluctuations.

关键词： portfolio node price fluctuation transmission right energy storage right risk aversion

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大尺度地层内的分层运动

许绍燮

《中国工程科学》 2006年第8卷第6期页码 14-22

摘要：

报告了观察到大尺度地层内分层运动的新发现，以及大尺度层块活动的直接证据——大尺度地层垂向同步运动，其层块的尺度可大到数千公里洲际尺度。分析了我国超长周期（360～3000s）地震监测台站记录中的层块活动局域性高强颤振事件。发现格尔木台（2001年11月份）记录到的高强颤振事件与发生在其附近（2001.11.14）昆仑山口西M8.1大震有一定关系。这些信息对于探索地震预测，以及认识大地构造动力具有重要意义。

关键词：大尺度地层内的分层运动高强颤振事件地震预测